What Happened to ‘Sell in May & Go Away’?
“Sell in May and go away.” Or so goes the Wall Street adage. But so far this year, that “old saw” is being tested. In fact, “Buy in May and go away” could be a better approach in 2024! Why has May started so well? It’s all about the Fed and its outlook for interest […]
What’s Happening with the U.S. Money Supply (and What Does it Mean)?
When financial professionals like me start digging into the tools we use to assess financial market valuations, one thing that catches our eye is the U.S. money supply. We look closely at measures like M1 and M2— basically the rock stars of the money supply world. M1 is all about cold, hard cash and those […]
Social Security Announces 2024 COLA
The Social Security Administration has announced a 3.2% Cost of Living Adjustment (COLA) for 2024. This adjustment means the average Social Security retiree beneficiary will see their monthly check increase by about $57 to $1,849, though individual benefits may vary. This increase is calculated by comparing the third quarter Consumer Price Index (CPI) against that […]
Why the Fed Can’t Figure Out the Jobs Market
As the Fed continues its fight against inflation, one of the more challenging parts of the economy is gauging what’s happening in the jobs market. One July report showed the private sector added nearly 500,000 jobs, double the expectations. Meanwhile, another July report showed that job openings fell by 500,000, also above expectations. In explaining […]
Supply Chain Issues Appear Resolved. For Now.
Here’s a riddle. “I’m a two-word phrase that we heard almost every day for two years, but it has dropped from almost all economic talk in 2023?” Answer: Supply chain. As you can see from the accompanying chart, the global supply chain pressure index hit an all-time low in May 2023. The index measures the […]
Bull Market Leaving Some Behind
Market timing is exhausting. And sometimes, it can be expensive. When you time the markets, you have to be right twice – first when getting out and second when getting back in. In the accompanying chart, you can see individual investors remain mostly “out” despite the stock market’s 2023 rally.1 While the chart shows individuals […]
The Most Unloved Bull Market in History?
What is a bull market, and more importantly, who determines if we are in one? Technically speaking, a bull market is defined as a 20% gain in a stock market index, such as the Standard & Poor’s 500, from a closing low. So are we in one? Technically, no. The S&P 500 hit a low […]
“Better” Is the Best Word on Wall Street
From my perspective, we can’t hear the word “better” enough in the weeks ahead. “Better than expected.” “Better than feared.” “Better than forecasted.” These are winning phrases that can be used by market pundits when they compare a company’s quarterly financials against Wall Street’s forecasts. Additionally, terms like these can help investors feel hopeful about potential market behavior. […]
The Latest Social Security Predictions
Recently, you may have seen reports that the so-called “depletion date” for Social Security was adjusted. This refers to the predicted date when the long-running program will no longer be able to pay full benefits. Barring action from Congress, the Treasury Department predicts that 80% of benefits will be paid by 2034. This is one […]
Fed Attempts to Calm Markets
Jerome Powell is a man of his word. And the financial markets believe that’s an excellent trait for the Federal Reserve Chairman. Powell told the financial markets to prepare for a 25 basis points increase in short-term rates in early February following the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) March meeting. And that’s what he delivered. […]